Week 2.8 Preparation

This MR prepares content.

Notes are added to the top of the page to indicate optional material. This is a good case study for developing automatic page-parsing tools.

Notes about scope:

1. change name to "Risk Analysis"
2. the main goal is to construct and evaluate risk curves
3. much of the Risk Evaluation chapter is optional, for background reading
4. last page, Risk Evaluation: Safety Standards: Limits..., is essential
5. Dam Exercise: parts 3 and 4 are required
6. Risk Definition, Curve and Evaluation.
7. For evaluation, focus is on constructing and evaluating a risk curve only, which requires a basic undertsanding of expectation and a few economic concepts; background material is to provide context only, it is not part of the exam material.
8. To be specific, the following pages should be read, but do not need to be memorized: steps in risk analysis, decision analysis, cost benefit, economic optimization, paint system

Changes:

1. change main name (title) to "Risk Analysis"
2. change 1st chapter from "Risk Analysis" to "Risk Introduction"
3. switched order of dam and paint exercises
4. made econ example a subpage
5. updated descriptions on 3 intro/overview pages and added a note admonition to the non-essential pages.
6. added notes on 2 exercise pages

Removed:

• component and system, since it is covered elsewhere and small
• sample exam page: not relevant enough for FN curves

book/pd/exercises/exercise-dam.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 Only Questions 3 and 4 of this exercise are relevant for the exam material in this chapter. Note, however, that Questions 1 and 2 should be review of material from previous chapters.
 ```
 
-You are tasked to analyse the safety of a dam and the downstream river system. Downstream of the dam there is a dike ring protected by two main dike sections which must be able to contain water released from the reservoir. The dike sections are connected to each other and form a continuous boundary along the same side of the river. Let $P(F_1)=0.01$ and $P(F_2)=0.01$ denote failure probability of dike section 1 and section 2 respectively. There appears to be a correlation between failures of both sections, $\rho_{1,2}=0.9$, and the figure below shows the effect of the correlation coefficient on the joint failure of the two sections. -->
+You are tasked to analyse the safety of a dam and the downstream river system. Downstream of the dam there is a dike ring protected by two main dike sections which must be able to contain water released from the reservoir. The dike sections are connected to each other and form a continuous boundary along the same side of the river. Let $P(F_1)=0.01$ and $P(F_2)=0.01$ denote failure probability of dike section 1 and section 2 respectively. There appears to be a correlation between failures of both sections, $\rho_{1,2}=0.9$, and the figure below shows the effect of the correlation coefficient on the joint failure of the two sections.
 
 
 % commented paragraphs were used for an exam question with a fault tree